How Climate Change Threatens Satellites in Orbit

Greenhouse gas emissions make the upper atmosphere thinner, preventing space debris from burning up and disappearing.
New MIT study predicts a decline of up to 66% in the carrying capacity of key satellite orbits by 2100, threatening the space industry and essential services such as communication and navigation.

Climate change may threaten the future use of satellites and significantly reduce the number of space shuttles and satellites that can safely orbit the Earth, according to a new study by MIT scientists published in the journal Nature Sustainability.
The study, supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation, the U.S. Air Force and the UK Natural Environment Research Council, found that greenhouse gas emissions contract the upper atmosphere, particularly the thermosphere, where the International Space Station and most satellites orbit. Currently, there are over 10,000 satellites moving in low Earth orbit, located up to 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) from Earth.

These satellites provide essential services, including internet, communication, navigation, weather forecasting, and more.
The number of satellites has increased significantly in recent years more satellites have been launched in the past five years than in the previous 60 years combined.
In addition, there are many objects that constitute space debris (about 56,000 objects in the region), requiring operators to perform constant collision avoidance maneuvers to maintain safety.
Any collision can create debris that remains in orbit for decades or centuries, increasing the likelihood of further collisions with old and new satellites.
“We rely on the atmosphere to clean up our debris,” said the researchers.
“If the atmosphere changes, the debris environment will also change.

We show that the long-term forecast for orbital debris critically depends on restraining our greenhouse gas emissions.
Debris amount in orbit around Earth is increasing rapidly.
European Space Agency (ESA) estimates there are more than 40,000 large parts over 10 cm in orbit.
The total mass of man-made objects in Earth’s orbit is about 13,000 tons, roughly equivalent to the mass of 90 adult blue whales.
About one third of this mass is debris (4,300 tons), mostly “rocket bodies” left in orbit.

This may be only a partial list not all objects are easy to track but here is one example of how an innocent looking satellite becomes a debris problem: In June, the RESURS-P1 satellite broke up in low Earth orbit (at an altitude of about 470 km), creating over 100 debris fragments that could be tracked. Estimates suggest the event produced many smaller debris pieces too small to track (smaller than a tennis ball).

Kessler syndrome describes a scenario in which the amount of debris in orbit reaches a critical threshold, triggering a cascade effect where collisions generate more debris, causing more collisions, making Earth’s orbit unusable.

In June 2024, an inactive Russian satellite broke into nearly 200 debris pieces, forcing astronauts on the International Space Station to take shelter and prepare for evacuation.
If Earth’s orbit becomes unusable due to massive debris, it threatens our ability to monitor weather, climate and other environmental changes and to receive vital early warnings of extreme weather events.